I feel I am being taken back to when I started blogging, at the beginning of the Obama Administration and at the time of the debates regarding the ACA. Only this time it is role reversal. The Republicans control both houses of Congress and the White House and similarly, they have insufficient numbers to avoid filibuster issues in the Senate. I started writing this piece before the first House health care bill was withdrawn but I was not able to get back to it until after the second bill made it to the Senate. I have not had a chance to read either one in any great detail. I suspect I am no different from the overwhelming majority of people who feel entirely comfortable to render judgment, either positive or negative.
I understand the urgency which is perceived by Republican leadership, but the urgency is political urgency, not necessarily anything more. Yes, the exchanges are collapsing but from what I can tell, nothing offered in either of the replacement bills will do much to forestall this near term problem.
As far as I can determine, the debate is essentially useless. One side claims it is acting to avoid immediate ACA collapse while the other side claims it is resisting to avoid system collapse which will be induced by reform. The issues are framed as black or white. None of this makes any sense.
We have a dysfunctional system and it has been increasingly dysfunctional for decades. We spend tons of money for low value care. Services which could and should be inexpensive are expensive. We still have substantial numbers of people who are not insured, despite the ACA. Even those with insurance have a hard time accessing services they need. The quality of the services offered is spotty and highly variable. We are going broke trying to keep up with spending.
It is important to address these issues over time. It is also important to prioritize them because not everything can or should be addressed at the same time. Some of the goals are mutually incompatible, at least currently and likely inherently into the indefinite future.
In my mind there are basically two competing immediate priorities. The quality and value issue is tied to both.
1. No one should be left without adequate resources to meet the needs of their illnesses, no matter what. Included in this is the debate regarding pre-existing conditions and insurance coverage.
2. Health care costs are increasing in an unsustainable fashion and will consume resources which may better invested outside of the health care economy.
The first tends to be talking points from the left and the second is a talking point from the right. They are two very different priority sets. Both sides want value and quality (who can argue wit that?) Making the first priorities are not compatible with making financial sustainability one's priority. It will take infinite resources to entice the last few millions to partake in the insurance market. Furthermore, even in the presence of near universal insurance there will always be circumstances where coverage will not equate to actual care. A good system which provides insurance coverage does not mean a perfect system. One will always be able to find examples of failure, even in a the best system one can deploy at any given point in time.
The current debate is very disheartening because the competing parties frame the discussion in terms of starkly right and wrong alternatives. If they actually believe this starkness is true we are in trouble. I am not sure what to hope for; parties are blind to where they might be wrong, or parties who are simply power hungry and willing to vilify those with contrary views simply to further their own personal ends.
The current system is a mess, for a host of reasons. Culpability goes back generations to decisions made in both political and private sectors. Unwinding this, if it is even possible, will be painful. It is only possible if the biggest contributors to dysfunction can be identified and addressed in a stepwise fashion. However, we cannot even come to an agreement as to what primary dysfunction we need to address. Is it the fact that there are those still out there who cannot garner sufficient benefit from the insurance/healthcare delivery system or is it that the system is financially unsustainable? Focus on the first priority and you worsen the second problem; and vice versa.
Meanwhile, the rhetoric gets more strident and the assumption is that no compromises and trade offs are required. Lobby for what you believe represents prudent fiscal constraint which is required to save future generations from bankruptcy and you get accused of being heartless and an idiot.
However, for any system to work better, there will be financial transfers required. How much is optimal is likely a moving target. They need to be based upon consistent principles, framed is a transparent way, and supported by the best outcomes data we can muster. The only real outcomes data we use is whether politicians can leverage transfers ( or resistance to transfers) into votes. Currently, financial transfers such as those which are required for the ACA, feed the polarization since they come to be either expected by some segments of society or resented by other segments, independently of whether they are good investments.
The bottom line is I don't get how anyone can be especially passionate about our options. Fixing problems which have plagued mankind for millennia does not happen by trying to implement broad political and legal fixes to problems we do not understand and are not able to readily measure success or failure. One set of constituencies measures success by how we spend while the other measures success by how little we spend.
What I am certain of is within the spectrum of solutions offered to fix health care there are ones that may be better or worse, but none that represent right or wrong. Even the better or worse assessments need to be understood within specific time contexts. Some that may be better in the short term could be worse in the longer term, and vice versa. The choices are simply not that starkly right or wrong and to vilify someone who points that out is crazy.
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